Trouble in Mesopotamia: Can America Deter a Water War between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey?

Abstract

Prior to Saddam Hussein's fall the tensions over the waters of the Tigris-Euphrates River basin reached internationally acknowledged levels, and a lack of cooperation among the riparians, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, confronted the world with a new potential conflict area. This situation threatened the delicate political stability in the Middle East, and further polarization in the region continues today. In terms of water allocation the basin is one of the most unstable political areas in the region and in this extremely arid environment water plays an important role. This is a classic case of water quantity problem, which manifests itself in a struggle for use of the available water in the basin. I then assess the geography and hydrography of the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin. It then assesses how the damming of the two rivers by each of the three riparians, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, has altered the hydrological balance. In particular I examine Turkey's GAP dams, which are situated in eastern Anatolia, near the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. One then reviews the historical conflict in the Basin and also explores past avenues of cooperation, including treaty making. The article then proposes a framework solution to the deadlock, via the use of international law. As part of this section I explore the development of equitable principle of water use; the doctrine of equitable utilization and water management principles within the context of Tigris-Euphrates River Basin conflict. One then assess solutions that have either been considered or are extant to determine whether these may offer a pacific solution to the transboundary allocation of water in the Basin. Some of these solutions include, a proposal offered by The League of Arab States; a model for a unified plan; the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty; the Oslo II Israeli-Palestinian Water Agreement; the Boundary Waters Treaty's JWC framework as a "management" body for allocating water and governing future disputes and allocations.

Keywords: Anatolia, Boundary Waters Treaty, Doctrine of Equitable Utilization, Hydrography, GAP Dams, Iraq, Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty, Riparian, Syria, Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, Transboundary Rivers, Turkey, Water Allocation, Water Management, Water Wars

JEL Classification: K1, K10, K11, K12, K20, K23, K30, K32, L50, L65