Inflation Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates and Inflation Convergence

Abstract

Using a disaggregated-level CPI data, this paper compares convergence properties of regional inflation rates in a small-open economy, Turkey, between pre-inflation-targeting and inflation-targeting periods, where the latter also corresponds to a flexible exchange rate regime. It is found that during the inflation-targeting period, Turkish regional inflation rates have converged to each other in terms of CPI groups with relatively non-tradable components, while they have diverged from each other in terms of CPI groups with relatively tradable components. Since a common and sound monetary policy among the regions of a country is supposed to have a convergence effect on regional inflation rates according to the conventional wisdom, the results for CPI groups with relatively tradable components require further attention and have significant policy implications, especially for inflation-targeting countries using flexible exchange rate regimes.

Keywords: Inflation Targeting, Inflation Convergence, Regional Analysis, Turkey

JEL Classification: E31, E50, E52, R12