How to Project Patient Persistency
10 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2007
Abstract
A problem that pharmaceutical companies face is how to project the persistency patterns of patients who are taking their manufactured medications into the future; i.e., how to determine the percentage of patients who will continue to refill a given prescription on a timely basis. The authors have developed a probability model with a well-grounded story for the dropout process. The model, which can be implemented in a simple Excel spreadsheet, provides remarkably accurate forecasts as well as other useful diagnostics about patient persistency.
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