Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version

21 Pages Posted: 28 Jan 2008

See all articles by Itzhak Gilboa

Itzhak Gilboa

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics; HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Andrew Postlewaite

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

David Schmeidler

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics; Ohio State University (OSU)

Date Written: January 28, 2008

Abstract

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help up characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

Keywords: Decision making, Bayesian, Behavioral Economics

JEL Classification: B4, D8

Suggested Citation

Gilboa, Itzhak and Postlewaite, Andrew and Schmeidler, David, Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version (January 28, 2008). PIER Working Paper No. 08-002, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1088122 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1088122

Itzhak Gilboa (Contact Author)

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel
972-3-640-6423 (Phone)
972-3-640-9908 (Fax)

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Paris
France

Andrew Postlewaite

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-7350 (Phone)
215-573-2057 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/~apostlew

David Schmeidler

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel
+972-3-640-9643 (Phone)
+972-3-640-9357 (Fax)

Ohio State University (OSU) ( email )

Blankenship Hall-2010
901 Woody Hayes Drive
Columbus, OH OH 43210
United States

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