The Demand for Guarantees in Social Security Personal Retirement Accounts

28 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2008

See all articles by Olivia S. Mitchell

Olivia S. Mitchell

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School; University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School, Pension Research Council; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Alexander Muermann

WU (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Vienna Graduate School of Finance (VGSF)

Date Written: October 2003

Abstract

This project evaluates how workers might invest their Personal Retirement Account (PRA) funds between safe and risky assets, depending on whether they are offered a rate of return guarantee on the risky asset. We focus on how asset allocation decisions might differ depending on participants' attitudes about risk and regret. If, for example, the return on the risky asset turns out to be very high when a worker retires, he might regret not having allocated a large enough portion of his contributions to the risky asset. On the contrary, if the stock market does poorly, the retiree might regret having invested at all in that asset. We show that anticipated disutility from regret can have a potent effect on investment choices in a PRA. If there is no guarantee, regret induces investors to move away from extreme decisions: that is, investors who take regret into account hold less stock if the risk premium is high, but more stocks if the risk premium is low. Further, a rate of return guarantee provided at no cost to the plan participant induces him to hold more stocks, with or without regret. We also show that, with or without regret, investors' willingness to pay for a guarantee rises with the level of the guaranteed return. This research could be informative regarding the potential profitability of the guaranteed pension business, which would help determine whether a government subsidy would be required to bring these products to market.

Suggested Citation

Mitchell, Olivia S. and Muermann, Alexander, The Demand for Guarantees in Social Security Personal Retirement Accounts (October 2003). Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. WP 2003-060, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1092148 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1092148

Olivia S. Mitchell (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School, Pension Research Council ( email )

3302 Steinberg Hall-Dietrich Hall
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6302
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Alexander Muermann

WU (Vienna University of Economics and Business) ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
A - 1020 Wien
Austria
+43 1 31336 4948 (Phone)
+43 1 31336 90 4948 (Fax)

Vienna Graduate School of Finance (VGSF) ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
A - 1020 Wien
Austria

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