Consumer Confidence and Elections
61 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2008
There are 2 versions of this paper
Date Written: February 2008
Abstract
We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 countries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer confidence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macro-economic and fiscal variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.
Keywords: consumer confidence, EU-15, fiscal conditions, incumbent party, macro-economy, national elections, political business cycle, USA
JEL Classification: D7, E6, H3
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?
By Andrew Leigh, Justin Wolfers, ...
-
What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?
By Andrew Leigh, Justin Wolfers, ...
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
By Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
-
Did Steve Forbes Scare the Municipal Bond Market?
By Joel B. Slemrod and Timothy Greimel
-
Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
By Erik C. Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, ...