Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
33 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2008
There are 3 versions of this paper
Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
Abstract
We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social Democrats proposed budget cuts affecting parents with young children before the 1994 election, but made generous promises to the same group before the 1998 election. Since parents with older children were largely unaffected we use a difference-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but not to the later implementation of the reforms.
Keywords: elections, economic voting, pocketbook voting, self-interest, prospective voting, retrospective voting, child care
JEL Classification: C21, D72, H50
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility
-
Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior? A Look at the Family Cap
-
Fertility and Financial Incentives in France
By Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanie
-
Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return-to-Work? Evidence from a True Natural Experiment
By Rafael Lalive and Josef Zweimüller
-
Fertility, Female Labor Supply and Public Policy
By Patricia F. Apps and Ray Rees
-
Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives?
By Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanie
-
Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives?
By Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanie
-
Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records
By Theodore Joyce, Robert Kaestner, ...