Informative Trading or Just Noise? An Analysis of Currency Returns, Market Analysis of Currency Returns, Market Proximity of Central Bank Interventions
61 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2008
Date Written: October 2002
Abstract
We study the impact of Central Bank intervention on the process of priceformation in currency markets. We use a unique dataset of tick-by-tick indicativequotes posted by dealers on Reuters terminals and of intraday sterilized spot interventions and customer transactions executed on behalf of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on the Swiss Franc/U.S. Dollar exchange rate (CHFUSD) between 1986 and 1998. We find that potentially informative SNB interventions (but not ex post uninformative customer transactions), although small relative to daily trading volumes in the CHFUSD market,had significant and persistent (albeit asymmetric, depending on their sign)effects on daily currency returns, especially when (relatively) large in magnitude,expected by the market, or inconsistent with existing momentum. The market did not anticipate the occurrence of incoming interventions unless if chasing the trend. The SNB was much less successful in smoothingfluctuations of the currency, for daily CHFUSD volatility always surged inproximity of interventions, as did average absolute and proportional spreads.Decomposition of estimated absolute spread shocks also reveals that SNB actionsinduced misinformation among market participants, impacted trading immediacy, and increased market liquidity and competition among dealers. Many of these changes translated into higher transaction costs borne by the population of investors.
Keywords: Sterilized Central Bank Intervention, Market Microstructure, Market Microstructure, Information, Inventory
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