Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh

Abstract

Chemical Fertilizer shortage and misallocation has been a perennial problem that has fraught the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand can be a significant boon that can greatly emend the current scenario in regards to fertilizer shortage. Unfortunately government at present has no such forecasting model to tackle such issue. The paper tries to develop a forecasting model for the seasonal and annual demand of three major fertilizers, urea TSP and MP, for six years based on the forecast of production area under rice and vegetable cultivation. The choice of commodity lies in the fact that together rice and vegetable account for 78% of the cultivable area in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Agriculture, Chemical Fertilizer Demand, ARIMA, Forecasting, Rice, Vegetable, Production

JEL Classification: Q18