Predicting Gold Ores Price

5 Pages Posted: 25 May 2009

See all articles by Ivan Kitov

Ivan Kitov

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics

Date Written: May 24, 2009

Abstract

It was demonstrated that gold ores price can be predicted at a several year horizon. The prediction consists of three steps. First, we show that the difference between producer price index and the index for gold ores is characterized by the presence of sustainable mid-term trends. Second, the evolution of the difference is predicted at a five to ten-year horizon. Considering the PPI to be practically constant over the next decade, the above difference provides a direct prediction of the price index for gold ores.

Keywords: gold ores, prediction, PPI

JEL Classification: E3, G1

Suggested Citation

Kitov, Ivan O., Predicting Gold Ores Price (May 24, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1409342 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1409342

Ivan O. Kitov (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics ( email )

Leninsky prospect 38/1
Moscow, Moscow 119334
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://idg3.chph.ras.ru

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