On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?
40 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2009
Date Written: June 30, 2009
Abstract
Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net foreign assets (NFA) are integrated of any finite order, or if net exports (NX) and NFA satisfy an error-correction specification with a residual integrated of any finite order. We test these conditions using data for 21 industrial and 29 emerging economies for the 1970-2004 period. The results show that, despite the large global imbalances of recent years, NFA and NX positions are consistent with external solvency. Country-specific unit root tests on NFA-GDP ratios suggest that nearly all of them are integrated of order 1. Pooled Mean Group error-correction estimation yields evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of the NX-GDP ratio to the NFA-GDP ratio that is largely homogeneous across countries.
Keywords: global imbalances, external solvency, debt sustainability, Pooled Mean Group estimation
JEL Classification: F41, F32, E66
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on U.S. Foreign Debt
By Cédric Tille
-
An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates
By Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, ...
-
An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates
By Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, ...