The Illusion of Courage in Social Predictions: Underestimating the Impact of Fear of Embarrassment on Other People

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 96, pp. 130-141, 2005

12 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2010

See all articles by Leaf Van Boven

Leaf Van Boven

University of Colorado Boulder

George Loewenstein

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Social and Decision Sciences

David Dunning

Cornell University

Date Written: 2005

Abstract

The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances – miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2) – in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing.

Keywords: AVective forecasting, Decision making, Empathy gaps, Emotion, Judgment, Prediction, Perspective taking

Suggested Citation

Van Boven, Leaf and Loewenstein, George F. and Dunning, David, The Illusion of Courage in Social Predictions: Underestimating the Impact of Fear of Embarrassment on Other People (2005). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 96, pp. 130-141, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1532569

Leaf Van Boven (Contact Author)

University of Colorado Boulder ( email )

University of Colorado Boulder
Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, 345 UCB
Boulder, CO 80309
United States
303.735.5238 (Phone)
303.492.2967 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/

George F. Loewenstein

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Social and Decision Sciences ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States
412-268-8787 (Phone)
412-268-6938 (Fax)

David Dunning

Cornell University ( email )

Department of Psychology
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

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