The Illusion of Courage in Social Predictions: Underestimating the Impact of Fear of Embarrassment on Other People
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 96, pp. 130-141, 2005
12 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2010
Date Written: 2005
Abstract
The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances – miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2) – in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing.
Keywords: AVective forecasting, Decision making, Empathy gaps, Emotion, Judgment, Prediction, Perspective taking
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