Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases

Posted: 11 Jan 2010

Date Written: 2009

Abstract

Using the 2008 elections, I explore the accuracy and informational content of forecasts derived from two different types of data: Polls and prediction markets. Both types of data suffer from inherent biases, and this is the first analysis to compare the accuracy of these forecasts adjusting for these biases. Moreover, the analysis expands on previous research by evaluating state-level forecasts in Presidential and Senatorial races, rather than just the national popular vote. Utilizing several different estimation strategies, I demonstrate that early in the cycle and in not-certain races debiased prediction market-based forecasts provide more accurate probabilities of victory and more information than debiased poll-based forecasts. These results are significant because accurately documenting the underlying probabilities, at any given day before the election, is critical for enabling academics to determine the impact of shocks to the campaign, for the public to invest wisely and for practitioners to spend efficiently.

Suggested Citation

Rothschild, David M., Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases (2009). Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 73, Issue 5, pp. 895-916, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1533248 or http://dx.doi.org/nfp082

David M. Rothschild (Contact Author)

Microsoft Research ( email )

New York City, NY NY 10011
United States

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