Short-Term Monitoring of the Spanish Government Balance with Mixed-Frequencies Models

Abstract

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled through its total revenue and expenditure categories, and encompasses a number of indicators, depending on data availability. The mixed-frequencies approach is particularly relevant for the case of Spain, given its institutional set-up and the specific data availability for the different subsectors. All in all, we provide models detailed enough in coverage, while at the same time manageable, to be used: (i) for real-time monitoring of fiscal policies with a focus on quarterly developments of the General Government sector; (ii) for the monitoring of general government sub-sectors for which intra-annual data coverage is limited (Regional and Local governments), and (iii) to bridge (translate) into National Accounts available monthly information for the subsectors of the general government.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting, Fiscal policies, Mixed frequency data, Kalman Filter

JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6