The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Keywords: EU, Exchange Rate Volatility, Growth, FDI, Credit, Current Account

JEL Classification: F3, F4, F5