Monte Carlo Simulation of Damage by Disaster: A Case Study in West Bengal

Abstract

Of all natural disasters, floods are the most consistently recurring events in India. India has several regions that are particularly vulnerable to floods. During the last decade India was affected by flood more than other events. An analysis of vulnerability of flood in different States in India reveals that West Bengal can be identified as one of the most flood prone areas in India. Although flood has become a regular phenomenon in West Bengal, its extent of damage is uncertain. In some years less than 5 million people are affected by flood whereas in some yeas this number exceeds 20 million. Number of people affected by flood is directly related to the geographical area under flood. People are affected through damages of house, losses of life, illness, damages of agricultural crop, disruption of transport system, etc. When people are affected they need rescue operation, financial and material relief, and medical treatment. Thus forecasting of the extent of flood affected area and its expected damage is highly needed. In this paper we have made an attempt to predict the extent of flood affected area in West Bengal using Monte Carlo Simulation. Then an attempt has been made to analyse the relations between the extent of flood and the damage caused thereby using a path model.

Keywords: disaster, simulation, vulnerability, path analysis, damage, flood impact

JEL Classification: C15, C51