Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models
55 Pages Posted: 16 Jul 2010 Last revised: 27 Mar 2015
Date Written: January 23, 2012
Abstract
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Point forecasts of some models are of similar accuracy as the forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts of different DSGE models turn out to be quite distinct. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from individual models. The accuracy of a simple average of DSGE model forecasts is comparable to Greenbook projections for medium term horizons. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts.
Keywords: DSGE models, forecasting, model uncertainty, forecast combination, density forecasts, real-time data, Greenbook
JEL Classification: C53, E31, E32, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, ...
-
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, ...
-
An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts
By Christopher J. Erceg, Dale W. Henderson, ...
-
Shocks and Frictions in Us Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Shocks and Frictions in U.S. Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Resuscitating Real Business Cycles
By Robert G. King and Sergio T. Rebelo
-
Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
By Jean Boivin and Marc P. Giannoni