The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services - Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility, and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

Abstract

Knowledge about the timing of consumption opens new insights into consumption behaviour for consumer, economic, social, as well as for communal and societal policies. It not only allows sound information for a better match of timely supply and demand but also about everyday living arrangements. This study contributes to the timing aspect of daily consumption by posing the question: How is the timing of daily demand for goods and services affected by major changes in German society? We concentrate on important and currently discussed developments and policies: the huge shift in Germany’s demographic structure with an aging society (with a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office), the deregulation and the further expansion in flexibility of the labour market, and the current policy of extending public childcare support. For each aspect and policy, we first describe the actual timing of daily demand for goods and services. With the microsimulation approach and different scenarios, we then quantify the respective societal and policy impacts based on more than 37 000 time-use diaries of the current German Time Budget Survey of 2001/2002.

Keywords: Timing of daily demand, Consumer policy analysis by microsimulation, Aging society, Flexible working hours, Public childcare support

JEL Classification: J29, R22, C15