A Post-Crisis Assessment of Retirement Income Adequacy for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers

Abstract

The analysis in this paper was designed to answer two questions: (1) What percentage of U.S. households became at risk of insufficient retirement income as a result of the financial market and real estate crisis in 2008 and 2009?; (2) Of those who are at risk, what additional savings do they need to make each year until retirement age to make up for their losses from the crisis? The results are from the 2010 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model® by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Key findings of the analysis include the following:

Range at risk: The percentage of households that would not have been “at risk” without the 2008-2009 crisis but that ended up “at risk” varies from a low of 3.8 percent to a high of 14.3 percent.

50/50 chance of adequacy: Looking at all Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), the median percentage of additional compensation for these households desiring a 50 percent probability of retirement income adequacy would be 3.0 percent of compensation each year until retirement age to account for the financial and housing market crisis in 2008 and 2009.

90 percent chance of adequacy: Looking at all Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), the median percentage of additional compensation for these households desiring a 90 percent probability of retirement income adequacy would be 4.3 percent of compensation.

Range of adequacy: Looking only at Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), that had account balances in defined contribution plans and IRAs as well as exposure to the real estate crisis in 2008 and 2009, shows a median percentage of 5.6 percent for a 50 percent probability and 6.7 percent for a 90 percent probability of retirement income adequacy.

Keywords: Defined Contribution Plans, Employment-Based Benefits, Financial Crisis, Home Equity, Income Replacement Rate, Pension Plan Coverage, Retirement Income, Retirement Planning, Savings

JEL Classification: D31, D91, G12, J14, J26, J33