Social Forecasting - Tool for Corporate Planning and Application to Information Technology Industry

14 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2011

See all articles by Prabhakar Krishnamurthy

Prabhakar Krishnamurthy

Central University of Jammu; Humanistic Management Network; IIIT (D&M); Anna University

Date Written: January 15, 2011

Abstract

Corporate planning largely relied on technological and economic forecasting. However, failure to predict emergence of new business models, economic down turns led to search for a tool. Social forecasting takes into account different variables that are ignored for lack of precision. Its genesis and methodological premises such as model procedure, validation process, and past studies are explored. Social forecasting is applied for information technology industry with help Generational Learning Model to answer questions relating to growth of software industry. The analysis offered promising results and predicted the worldwide recession.

Keywords: Social forecasting, Economic forecasting, Technological forecasting, K-waves, structural cycles, Generational Learning Model, predictive capability, explanative capability.

JEL Classification: A14

Suggested Citation

Krishnamurthy, Prabhakar, Social Forecasting - Tool for Corporate Planning and Application to Information Technology Industry (January 15, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1781470 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1781470

Prabhakar Krishnamurthy (Contact Author)

Central University of Jammu ( email )

Bagla
Samba
Jammu, Jammu and Kashmir 181143
India
08082197957 (Phone)

Humanistic Management Network ( email )

St. Gallen
Switzerland

IIIT (D&M)

IIT Campus
Chennai, Tamil Nadu 600036
India

HOME PAGE: http://www.iiitdm.iitm.ac.in

Anna University

Chennai, Tamilnadu, Tamilnadu 600025
India

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