Social Forecasting - Tool for Corporate Planning and Application to Information Technology Industry
14 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2011
Date Written: January 15, 2011
Abstract
Corporate planning largely relied on technological and economic forecasting. However, failure to predict emergence of new business models, economic down turns led to search for a tool. Social forecasting takes into account different variables that are ignored for lack of precision. Its genesis and methodological premises such as model procedure, validation process, and past studies are explored. Social forecasting is applied for information technology industry with help Generational Learning Model to answer questions relating to growth of software industry. The analysis offered promising results and predicted the worldwide recession.
Keywords: Social forecasting, Economic forecasting, Technological forecasting, K-waves, structural cycles, Generational Learning Model, predictive capability, explanative capability.
JEL Classification: A14
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