Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

30 Pages Posted: 1 May 2011 Last revised: 22 Mar 2015

See all articles by Kevin Ummel

Kevin Ummel

Center for Global Development

Date Written: December 13, 2010

Abstract

This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (~7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020’s, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade - often relying upon long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.

Keywords: solar power, photovoltaic, solar power technologies, global, energy models, infrastructure planning

Suggested Citation

Ummel, Kevin, Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems (December 13, 2010). Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 235, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1824543 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1824543

Kevin Ummel (Contact Author)

Center for Global Development ( email )

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