The Bell Tolls for Hydrocarbons: What's Next?
16 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2011
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The Bell Tolls for Hydrocarbons: What's Next?
Date Written: July 1, 2008
Abstract
There are two major threats to the dominant, hydrocarbon-fueled energy regime in the world. First, there is the arguable peak in production and subsequent depletion of oil, the leading hydrocarbon and the world’s leading fuel. Second, there is global warming, which is significantly furthered by the combustion of oil and other hydrocarbons. These developments give rise to the same problem – a severe limitation on oil and other fossil fuels as a source of energy.
Many geologists are persuaded that oil production is currently at its peak and will soon sharply decline, but others, particularly economists, disagree. However, Peak Oil dictates the more urgent course and prudence requires that we pay heed. On the other hand, there is little scientific controversy about the anthropogenic sources of global warming and its restrictive impact on hydrocarbon use.
Responses to severe limitations on hydrocarbon use as fuel involve efforts to expand supply through development of substitute fuels and suppression of demand through demand response mechanisms, and otherwise, and through modifications to society and the economy. The supply approach would seek to maintain the existing energy base of civilization and its progressive development. Demand modifications might involve changes in society – even, in fanciful speculation, a slowing of “progress” or regression to a simpler era. Again and even more fancifully, history, based on the availability of energy, might tend to become cyclical rather than progressive in terms of development. There would be some differences between a decline in hydrocarbon availability based on the depletion of oil in contrast to one based on concern about global warming. Depletion of oil leaves other hydrocarbons available while global warming demands action on all fronts.
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