Cyclical and Structural Components of Corporate Tax Revenues in Japan

Abstract

The authors point to the difficulty of assessing fiscal sustainability when revenues fluctuate sharply and unexpectedly. They note that in recent years tax revenues in Japan have been considerably unstable, so it is no longer appropriate to calculate the amount of structural tax revenue using a standard elasticity. The paper examines the fluctuation of Japan’s corporate tax revenue and its elasticity since 1980. In particular, it evaluates the role of structural and cyclical changes in the distribution of value-added, the relationship between interest rates and return on capital, asset price movements and return from foreign investment, the divergence of economic fluctuations among sectors and the deductions of carried-over losses. Finally, the paper discusses appropriate methods for the estimation of structural corporate tax revenue.