The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma

72 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2012 Last revised: 12 Feb 2012

See all articles by Jevgenijs Steinbuks

Jevgenijs Steinbuks

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP); World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

Date Written: January 26, 2012

Abstract

This study analyzes the optimal allocation of the world’s land resources over the course of the next century in the dynamic forward-looking framework, which brings together distinct strands of economic, agronomic, and biophysical literature and incorporates key drivers affecting global landuse. We show that, while some deforestation is optimal in the near term, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century under the baseline scenario. While the adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, when combined with high growth in energy prices they lead to significant deforestation and higher GHG emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a GHG emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, the effectiveness of such a pre-announced constraint is completely diluted by intertemporal substitution of deforestation which accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

Keywords: biofuels, climate change, deforestation, energy, environment, food, forestry, forest vintages, GHG emissions, global land use

JEL Classification: C61, Q15, Q23, Q26, Q40, Q54

Suggested Citation

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs and Hertel, Thomas W., The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma (January 26, 2012). RDCEP Working Paper No. 12-01, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1992642 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1992642

Jevgenijs Steinbuks (Contact Author)

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

1145 Krannert Building
West Lafayette, IN 47907
United States

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

5735 S. Ellis Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
1145 Krannert Building
West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
765-494-4199 (Phone)
765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

5735 S. Ellis Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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