Projections of Elderly Health Development and Costs for Long-Term Care in Sweden

Abstract

The increasing number of older persons to be expected in the coming decades raises serious questions concerning the resources that will be demanded for provision of long-term care of the frail elderly. Clearly there is a need for increased resources. However, simplistic calculations based upon the assumption that future needs of care will be proportional to the number of old persons per age group can lead to misleading results by failing to take into account the health development of the older persons. Here currently available Swedish data indicate a possible shift in trends -- the previous very positive development seems to have changed into more moderate improvements or maybe even into a negative one.

In an effort to include factors such as health and access to informal care a calculation model has been developed. Data for the model are derived from different sources -- longitudinal studies, local surveys of recipients of care etc. Four different scenarios are explored. The model calculations show that the results are highly sensitive to the assumptions you make concerning the health development of older persons. In the most pessimistic scenario D the projected cost increase in fixed prices during the period 2005-2030 amounts to 69% -- in the most optimistic scenario 0 the cost increase stays at 25%. This shows the great importance of policy measures directed at improving the health of the elderly -- involving among others conditions that stimulate to increased physical and mental activity and also different medical interventions.