Shallow vs. Deep Integration in the Southern Mediterranean: Scenarios for the Region Up to 2030
MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 13
50 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2012
Date Written: March 30, 2012
Abstract
This research develops a quantitative analysis aimed at simulating the trade effects of various integration scenarios between the EU and its Mediterranean Partners (MPs). Results for shallow integration show that the completion of tariff removal is expected to produce limited gains, except in Algeria. However, further steps toward deep integration would lead to much more significant gains. In this regard, the elimination of non-tariff barriers is expected to increase EU exports to MPs up to 60%. In addition, MPs’ imports and exports to the EU could also considerably increase due to an improvement of logistics performance in these countries.
Keywords: EU, Mediterranean, integration, exports, Southern Mediterranean, logistics, deep integration, imports
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