System Dynamics Integrative Modeling in the Diffusion Dynamics of Indian Telecom Sector

43 Pages Posted: 6 Aug 2012

See all articles by Sanjay Bhushan

Sanjay Bhushan

Department of Management, Faculty of Social Sciences

Janat Shah

Indian Institute of Management Udaipur

Date Written: December 20, 2010

Abstract

In recent times, India has emerged as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world and witnessed a telecommunication revolution brought about by a collaboration of government, industry, and the scientific community. From a situation where an applicant had to wait three years to obtain a telephone connection to a position where telephone companies are wooing consumers, it has been a success of indigenous technology development and effective diffusion management.

Derived from the insight gained in the course of literature research and interaction with industry experts, in this paper, a system dynamics integrated model of Indian telecommunication sector (Mobile Telephony) has been calibrated to demonstrate the nature of interactions among system variables and the resultant outcome which assume degrees of importance at different stages of the diffusion/adoption process in the Indian telecom sector. From a supply chain perspective, the study has encompassed system modeling of the entire ‘supply-line’ of Telecom diffusion i.e. Supply-side dynamics (R&D, Infrastructure, Production & Promotion), Adoption-dynamics (Potential Adopters, Rate of Adoption and Number of Adopters) and Market-side dynamics (Subscription demand, Revenue and Profitability)

The work done here proves how the application of system dynamics modeling and simulation can contribute in a meaningful way to improve the holistic understanding of the dynamic structural complexities and forces driving and arising from the supply line of telecom diffusion. Several model simulations show the potential of using system dynamics as a promising modeling approach to capture, integrate and predict the structural behavior of innovation diffusion process. In the end, a novel interface of neural net has been explored to perform sensitivity analysis and a scenario projection of multiple usage situations has also been conducted.

Keywords: system modeling, system dynamics, innovation diffusion & supply chain

Suggested Citation

Bhushan, Sanjay and Shah, Janat, System Dynamics Integrative Modeling in the Diffusion Dynamics of Indian Telecom Sector (December 20, 2010). IIM Bangalore Research Paper No. 313, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2124786 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2124786

Sanjay Bhushan (Contact Author)

Department of Management, Faculty of Social Sciences ( email )

Dayalbagh Educational Institute(Deemed University)
Dayalbagh
Agra, Uttar Pradesh 282005
India
09411962970 (Phone)
282005 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.dei.ac.in

Janat Shah

Indian Institute of Management Udaipur ( email )

Mohanlal Sukhadia University Campus
Udaipur, Rajasthan 313001
India

HOME PAGE: http://www.iimu.ac.in

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