To What Extent are Financial Crises Comparable and Thus Predictable?

Abstract

This paper critically examines the quantitative approach to financial crises from two perspectives. First, the assumption of comparability of financial crises is analyzed. The key question here is: how comparable are crises? An important consideration here is the context – social and political. Second, if financial crises are comparable to a certain extent, then we should be able to make predictions. Thus, the second key question is: how predictable are crises? The results have implications for the development of a theory of financial crises and government policies on crisis management.

Keywords: Financial crises, Crisis, Crisis Models, Crisis Management

JEL Classification: G01, G17, G18, H12