Technology S-Curves in Renewable Energy Alternatives: Analysis and Implications for Industry and Government.

Abstract

Analyzing renewable energies from a technology s-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies has been excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind energy, solar power, innovation, technology s-curves, fossil fuels,

JEL Classification: O31, O32, O33, Q20, Q42