Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

46 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last revised: 26 Jan 2017

Date Written: January 26, 2017

Abstract

This paper presents an empirically based model of rational expectations. Bottom-up inflation expectations are computed using data from a once-only laboratory-based survey. To capture cognition under habitual conditions (Kahneman, 2003) we elicit subjects’ responses to stylized time series patterns of the CPI. These pattern-based expectations are shown to make up the systematic part of the data on inflation expectations from the Michigan consumer survey and they capture expectations relevant for inflation dynamics. The proposed model of expectations has more in common with the theory of rational expectations than with standard surveys of expectations since we can retrospectively compute expectations for earlier historical times as well as for the future as part of what-if-scenarios.

Keywords: inflation expectations, pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics

JEL Classification: D84, E31, C83, C91

Suggested Citation

Rötheli, Tobias F., Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations (January 26, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2279248 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2279248

Tobias F. Rötheli (Contact Author)

University of Erfurt ( email )

Postfach 900 221
Nordhauserstrasse 63
D-99105 Erfurt
Germany
+49 361 737 4531 (Phone)
+49 361 737 4539 (Fax)

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