Crime, Apprehension and Clearance Rates: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces

41 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2013

See all articles by Philip A. Curry

Philip A. Curry

University of Waterloo

Anindya Sen

University of Waterloo - Department of Economics

George Orlov

Cornell University

Date Written: October 4, 2013

Abstract

The Becker (1968) model of crime establishes the importance of the probability of apprehension as a key factor in a rational individual’s decision to commit a crime. In this respect, most empirical studies have used U.S. data to study the effects of more police officers on crime rates. We add to the relatively thin literature on the impacts of clearance rates, which we think is an equally important measure of the probability of apprehension. Our data are drawn from a panel of Canadian provinces from 1986-2005. Reduced form and IV estimates yield statistically significant elasticities of clearance rates, ranging from -0.2 to -0.36 from violent crimes and from -0.5 to -0.6 for property crimes. We think that these findings reflect the importance of productivity of the police force in terms of solving crimes and the possibility that hiring of police officers will not necessarily result in lower crime rates.

Keywords: Violent Crime, Property Crime, Probability of Apprehension, Clearance Rates, Canada

JEL Classification: K14, K42

Suggested Citation

Curry, Philip A. and Sen, Anindya and Orlov, George, Crime, Apprehension and Clearance Rates: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces (October 4, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2336202 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2336202

Philip A. Curry (Contact Author)

University of Waterloo ( email )

Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

Anindya Sen

University of Waterloo - Department of Economics ( email )

200 University Avenue W.
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada
519.885.1211, ext. 2123 (Phone)
519.725.0530 (Fax)

George Orlov

Cornell University ( email )

414 Uris Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853-7601
United States

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