Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads

Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 04/2014/DE/UECE

43 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2014

See all articles by António Afonso

António Afonso

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa; REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics

Date Written: November 22, 2013

Abstract

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area, a main concern for European leaders is the prevention of the possible contagion from distressed countries. In our research, we assess if there is a spillover effect from those countries and which determinants can be considered transmission mechanisms of the sovereign debt crisis. We use a panel of 13 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom), covering the period Q1:2000 to Q1:2013 and we also analyse each country individually, on the basis of a SUR analysis. We find that those countries with worse macro and fiscal fundamentals are more vulnerable to contagion and are more affected by international liquidity and credit risks.

Keywords: sovereign yield spreads, spillover effects, contagion

JEL Classification: C33, E62, G15, H62

Suggested Citation

Afonso, António, Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads (November 22, 2013). Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 04/2014/DE/UECE, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2358516 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2358516

António Afonso (Contact Author)

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

R. Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisbon, 1248-078
Portugal
+351 21 392 5985 (Phone)
+351 21 396 6407 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/homepage/aafonso/research

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics) ( email )

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Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
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HOME PAGE: http://uece.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics ( email )

ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
Rua Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisboa, 1249-078
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

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