Convergence of European Business Cycles: Evidence from a Graph Theory-Based Model

Abstract

This paper examines the co-movement patterns of European business cycles during the period 1986-2011, having as a focal point the year of the euro coin introduction, in 1999. We work within a Graph Theory context and apply a rolling window to study the evolution of the network that corresponds to the GDP growth cross-correlations of 22 European economies. The network is analyzed using the metrics of node degree and network density as well as the Minimum Dominating Set, providing us not only with a quantitative but also with a qualitative insight of the studied data set. Our main empirical results indicate that despite some distinct signs of divergence, the business cycles of the European countries display overall increased synchronization throughout the selected time sample.

Keywords: Business cycles, synchronization, convergence, Graph Theory, Network Analysis, complex economic networks, rolling window, Minimum Dominating Set