Caveat Lector: Sample Selection in Historical Heights and the Interpretation of Early Industrializing Economies

43 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2014 Last revised: 12 Jul 2023

See all articles by Howard Bodenhorn

Howard Bodenhorn

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University

Timothy W. Guinnane

Yale University - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Thomas A. Mroz

Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies

Date Written: March 2014

Abstract

Much of the research on height in historical populations relies on convenience samples. A crucial question with convenience samples is whether the sample accurately reflects the characteristics of the population; if not, then estimated parameters will be affected by sample selection bias. This paper applies a simple test for selection biased developed in Bodenhorn, Guinnane, and Mroz (2013) to several historical samples of prisoners, freed slaves, and college students. We reject the hypothesis of no selection bias in all cases. Using Roy's (1951) model of occupational choice, we interpret these findings as reflecting the economic forces that lead individuals to take the actions the led to inclusion in the sample. Our findings suggest that much of the evidence on the "industrialization puzzle" during the nineteenth century could reflect changing selection into the samples rather than changes in population heights.

Suggested Citation

Bodenhorn, Howard and Guinnane, Timothy W. and Mroz, Thomas A., Caveat Lector: Sample Selection in Historical Heights and the Interpretation of Early Industrializing Economies (March 2014). NBER Working Paper No. w19955, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2406757

Howard Bodenhorn (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University ( email )

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Timothy W. Guinnane

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Germany

Thomas A. Mroz

Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies ( email )

P.O. Box 3992
Atlanta, GA 30302-3992
United States

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