Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

36 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2014

See all articles by Amparo Nagore Garcia

Amparo Nagore Garcia

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

Arthur van Soest

Tilburg University; Netspar; RAND Corporation; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Abstract

Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period.We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration dependence is found, especially for stable jobs in the expansion period until the time of unemployment benefit expires. Individuals who are most affected by the financial crisis tend to be males, those aged 16-24 and 40-51 years, those living in regions with higher unemployment rates, individuals who are less qualified or work in manual occupations (particularly construction) and immigrants.

Keywords: unemployment durations, business cycle, dual labour markets, re-employment probability

JEL Classification: J64, C41, E32

Suggested Citation

Nagore Garcia, Amparo and van Soest, Arthur H. O. and van Soest, Arthur H. O., Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8121, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2429600 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2429600

Amparo Nagore Garcia (Contact Author)

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte de Sciences, Campus Belval
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

HOME PAGE: http://www.liser.lu

Arthur H. O. van Soest

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

Netspar

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

RAND Corporation ( email )

P.O. Box 2138
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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