Теоретические Основы Прогнозирования Основных Бюджетных Параметров Страны (Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country)

57 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2014

See all articles by P. Nazarov

P. Nazarov

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA)

Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Date Written: June 05, 2014

Abstract

Russian Abstract: Устойчивость государственных финансов предполагает долгосрочную сбалансированность доходов и расходов государственного бюджета. Сильная зависимость налоговых поступлений от экспорта сырьевых ресурсов в условиях значительных колебаний цен на них придает проблеме поддержания баланса доходов и расходов бюджетной системы особую остроту. Целью работы является разработка модели прогноза основных параметров бюджета России, в том числе, поступлений основных налогов, в целях использования полученных результатов при принятии решений в области бюджетно-налоговой политики, в частности, об изменении уровня налоговой нагрузки в стране, а также публикации прогнозов на регулярной основе.

English Abstract: Sustainability of public finances requires a long-term balance of revenues and expenditures of the state budget. The strong dependence of tax revenues from commodity exports in the face of major price fluctuations on them makes the problem of maintaining the balance of income and expenditure of the budget system particularly acute. The aim is to develop a model of the main parameters of the budget forecast of Russia, including revenues from the main taxes in order to use these results in decision-making in the area of ​​fiscal policy, in particular, changes in the tax burden in the country, as well as the publication of forecasts regularly.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Keywords: finance, balance, export, state budget, Russia, tax

Suggested Citation

Nazarov, P. and Kazakova, Maria V, Теоретические Основы Прогнозирования Основных Бюджетных Параметров Страны (Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country) (June 05, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2458962 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2458962

P. Nazarov (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Sredny av. V.O., 57/43
Moscow, St. Petersburg 119571
Russia

Maria V Kazakova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

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