An Empirical Analysis of the Infield Fly Rule
42 Pages Posted: 6 Jul 2014
There are 3 versions of this paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Infield Fly Rule
An Empirical Analysis of the Infield Fly Rule
An Empirical Analysis of the Infield Fly Rule
Date Written: July 3, 2014
Abstract
Legal scholars have written extensively about baseball’s Infield Fly Rule — its history and logic, its use as legal metaphor, and its cost-benefit policy rationales. This paper conducts the first empirical analysis of the rule, exploring whether its legal and policy justifications are quantitatively supported. Based on a review of every fly ball caught by an infielder in the relevant game situation in Major League Baseball from 2010 to 2013 (to be updated to include the 2014 season), this paper measures the frequency and location of infield fly calls and the effect the rule has on individual games to determine whether the feared cost-benefit disparities that motivate the rule would result absent the rule. Ultimately, the merits of the Infield Fly Rule cannot be measured quantitatively, at least not without resort to some ex ante qualitative value judgments. The normative conclusion one draws about the data presented in this paper depends on where one starts — both supporters of the rule and skeptics will find confirmation in the information gathered in this paper. Nevertheless, the numbers shed specific and interesting light on the realities of baseball’s most unique and famous (or infamous) play.
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