The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia

10 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2014 Last revised: 23 Jun 2023

See all articles by David I. Levine

David I. Levine

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business

Dean Yang

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 2014

Abstract

We estimate the impact of weather variation on agricultural output in Indonesia by examining the impact of local rainfall shocks on rice output at the district level. Our analysis makes use of local meteorological data on rainfall in combination with government administrative data on district-level rice output in the 1990s. We find that deviations from mean local rainfall are positively associated with district-level rice output. 10% higher rainfall leads metric tons of rice output to be 0.4% higher on average. The impact of rainfall on rice output occurs contemporaneously (in the same calendar year), rather than with a lag. These results suggest that researchers should be justified in interpreting higher rainfall as a positive contemporaneous shock to local economic conditions in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

Levine, David Ian and Yang, Dean and Yang, Dean, The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia (July 2014). NBER Working Paper No. w20302, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2471195

David Ian Levine (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )

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Dean Yang

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.umich.edu/~deanyang/

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics

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United States

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