Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams
48 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2000 Last revised: 16 Apr 2023
Abstract
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.
Keywords: GMM, Variance Components, Demographic Structure
JEL Classification: J11, J61, C23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think?
-
First- and Second-Generation Migrants in German: What Do We Know and What Do People Think?
-
Unemployment Benefits, Risk Aversion, and Migration Incentives
-
The Wage Performance of Immigrant Women: Full-Time Jobs, Part-Time Jobs, and the Role of Selection
-
The Wage Performance of Immigrant Women: Full-Time Jobs, Part-Time Jobs, and the Role of Selection
-
Dissimilation? The Educational Attainment of Second Generation Immigrants
-
By Felix Büchel and Joachim R. Frick
-
Mobility within Europe - the Attitudes of European Youngsters