Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

48 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2000 Last revised: 16 Apr 2023

See all articles by Christoph M. Schmidt

Christoph M. Schmidt

RWI - Leibniz-Insitut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen); Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Michael Fertig

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.

Keywords: GMM, Variance Components, Demographic Structure

JEL Classification: J11, J61, C23

Suggested Citation

Schmidt, Christoph M. and Fertig, Michael, Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams. IZA Discussion Paper No. 183, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=250752 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.250752

Christoph M. Schmidt (Contact Author)

RWI - Leibniz-Insitut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen) ( email )

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Michael Fertig

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