Beware of Feedback Effects Among Trust, Risk and Public Opinion: Quantitative Estimates of Rational versus Emotional Influences on Attitudes Toward Genetic Modification

Forthcoming 2014, Environmental Economics Vol. 5(4)

27 Pages Posted: 16 Oct 2014 Last revised: 8 Nov 2014

See all articles by Jonathan Kelley

Jonathan Kelley

International Survey Center; University of Nevada Reno - Department of Sociology

Date Written: October 15, 2014

Abstract

Support for genetic modification in agriculture mainly stems from approval of food and agricultural goals. It is facilitated by trust in the judgment of scientific authorities and undermined by anxiety about the risks involved. But there are symptoms of danger: Any public opinion data that show significant correlations between perceptions of fact (risk, trust etc.) and background characteristics (age, sex, religion, politics) or goals (environmental, medical, economic) typically reflect emotional feedback effects as well as rational scientific ones. Estimates from regression are then biased and more complex models required. Our structural equation analyses of five large, representative national surveys of Australia (N=8730) provide precise estimates of the magnitude of these effects, including reciprocal effects reflecting emotional influences. We also find that: (1) acceptance of the scientific worldview modestly increases support both directly and also indirectly through its influence on trust; (2) family socio-economic background increases knowledge of genetic engineering but is otherwise inconsequential; and (3) religious belief greatly hinders acceptance of the scientific worldview and slightly increases anxiety about risks.

Keywords: trust, risk, genetic modification, genetic engineering, scientific worldview, religious belief, public opinion, reciprocal effects, SEM, Australia, survey research, rational choice, emotional feedback, irrational effects

JEL Classification: Q160, O330, Z130, H430

Suggested Citation

Kelley, Jonathan, Beware of Feedback Effects Among Trust, Risk and Public Opinion: Quantitative Estimates of Rational versus Emotional Influences on Attitudes Toward Genetic Modification (October 15, 2014). Forthcoming 2014, Environmental Economics Vol. 5(4), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2510214 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2510214

Jonathan Kelley (Contact Author)

International Survey Center ( email )

18124 Wedge Parkway #1035
Reno, NV 89511
United States
415 315 9806 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.international-survey.org

University of Nevada Reno - Department of Sociology ( email )

United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
49
Abstract Views
644
PlumX Metrics