The Dive & Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures, Global Patterns, and Predictive Model

Abstract

A study of pairs of new products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011 finds that most current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently they suffer a dramatic decrease in relative penetration of 286% which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of 295 pairs of current-new products. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time-to-dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time-to-dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time-to-dive are shorter and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete-time hazard model shows that takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%. The authors discuss important implications of these results.

Keywords: Dive, Disruption, New Product Diffusion, Takeoff, Adoption, Discontinuance, Disadoption, Market Penetration, Hidden Discontinuance Period, Discrete Time Hazard Model