Individual Perceptions of Local Crime Risk

47 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2014 Last revised: 16 Sep 2022

See all articles by Martin Salm

Martin Salm

Tilburg University; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Ben Vollaard

CentER, Tilburg University

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Abstract

We provide evidence that perceptions of crime risk are severely biased for many years after a move to a new neighborhood. Based on four successive waves of a large crime survey, matched with administrative records on household relocations, we find that the longer an individual lives in a neighborhood, the higher their perception of the crime rate in the neighborhood. This finding holds irrespective of whether the move is from a relatively low-crime to a relatively high-crime area or vice versa. We find that avoidance behavior adjusts in line with the observed changes in beliefs.

Keywords: victimization, heuristic, crime

JEL Classification: D81, K42, K14

Suggested Citation

Salm, Martin and Vollaard, Ben, Individual Perceptions of Local Crime Risk. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8677, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2534705

Martin Salm (Contact Author)

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 7 / 9
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Ben Vollaard

CentER, Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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