Temperature and Human Capital in the Short- and Long-Run

42 Pages Posted: 11 May 2015 Last revised: 24 Apr 2022

See all articles by Joshua Graff Zivin

Joshua Graff Zivin

School of Global Policy and Strategy; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Solomon Hsiang

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research

Matthew Neidell

Columbia University; University of Chicago - Department of Economics and CISES; PERC - Property and Environment Research Center

Date Written: May 2015

Abstract

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on human capital, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals no statistically significant relationship between climate and human capital. This finding is consistent with the notion that adaptation, particularly compensatory behavior, plays a significant role in limiting the long run impacts from short run weather shocks.

Suggested Citation

Graff Zivin, Joshua and Hsiang, Solomon and Neidell, Matthew, Temperature and Human Capital in the Short- and Long-Run (May 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21157, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2604838

Joshua Graff Zivin (Contact Author)

School of Global Policy and Strategy ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Solomon Hsiang

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research ( email )

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Matthew Neidell

Columbia University ( email )

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University of Chicago - Department of Economics and CISES ( email )

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PERC - Property and Environment Research Center

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