Currency Wars: Who Gains from the Battle?

Abstract

We study the growth effects of currency undervaluation when countries employ active exchange rate management policies or impose capital controls, using a panel dataset of 185 countries. Applying two-stage regressions, we find that changes in undervaluation driven by exchange rate management and capital control policies have no significant impact on economic growth. Undervaluation that leads to higher growth mainly stems from policies that lower government consumption, reduce inflation and increase domestic savings. However, these policies are good for growth by themselves, with only limited additional growth effects through increased currency undervaluation. In sum, we find no evidence that battling in the currency depreciation war significantly increases a country’s growth rate.

Keywords: Real exchange rate misalignment, Growth, Undervaluation

JEL Classification: F31, F43, F49