Information Distortion and Voting Choices: Assessing the Origins and Effects of Factual Beliefs in an Initiative Election

Political Psychology Vol. 30, No. 6, 2009

17 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2016 Last revised: 10 Apr 2016

See all articles by John Gastil

John Gastil

Pennsylvania State University

Chris Wells

Independent

Justin Reedy

University of Washington

Carolyn Lee

Independent

Date Written: January 1, 2009

Abstract

To account for voter decision making in initiative elections, we integrate theory and research on public opinion, misinformation, and motivated reasoning. Heuristic and motivated reasoning literatures suggest that voters’ preexisting values interact with political sophistication such that politically knowledgeable voters develop systematically distorted empirical beliefs relevant to the initiatives on their ballots. These beliefs, in turn, can predict voting preferences even after controlling for underlying values, regardless of one’s political sophistication. These hypotheses were tested using a 2003 voter survey conducted prior to a statewide initiative election that repealed a workplace safety regulation. Results showed that only those voters knowledgeable of key endorsements had initiative-specific beliefs that lined up with their underlying antiregulation values. Also, voters’ empirical beliefs had an effect on initiative support even after controlling for prior values, and political sophistication did not moderate this effect.

Keywords: Heuristic processing, Initiative elections, Misinformation, Motivated reasoning, Political sophistication, Public opinion

Suggested Citation

Gastil, John and Wells, Chris and Reedy, Justin and Lee, Carolyn, Information Distortion and Voting Choices: Assessing the Origins and Effects of Factual Beliefs in an Initiative Election (January 1, 2009). Political Psychology Vol. 30, No. 6, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2723741

John Gastil (Contact Author)

Pennsylvania State University ( email )

University Park, PA 16802
United States

Chris Wells

Independent ( email )

Justin Reedy

University of Washington ( email )

No Address Available

Carolyn Lee

Independent ( email )

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