Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households: A Micro-Simulation Approach

22 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2016

See all articles by Julie Rozenberg

Julie Rozenberg

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France

S. Hallegatte

World Bank

Date Written: July 25, 2016

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in Vietnam shows that the main determinant of the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilled agriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts?in agriculture, health, and natural disasters?are introduced in each of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam in about a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more than a million people living in extreme poverty just because of climate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climate change pushes the most people into poverty are scenarios with slow structural change away from agriculture, low productivity growth in agriculture, high population growth, and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change has no impact on extreme poverty, although it still has an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent.

Keywords: Poverty, Environment and Development

Suggested Citation

Rozenberg, Julie and Hallegatte, Stephane, Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households: A Micro-Simulation Approach (July 25, 2016). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7766, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2814400

Julie Rozenberg (Contact Author)

CIRED, International Research Center on Environment & Development, France ( email )

Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F94736 Nogent sur Marne Cedex
France

Stephane Hallegatte

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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