Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC
Posted: 27 Sep 2001
Abstract
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.
Keywords: Fiscal forecasting, Forecast comparison, Loss function
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Artis, Michael J. and Marcellino, Massimiliano, Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=281962
Feedback
Feedback to SSRN
If you need immediate assistance, call 877-SSRNHelp (877 777 6435) in the United States, or +1 212 448 2500 outside of the United States, 8:30AM to 6:00PM U.S. Eastern, Monday - Friday.