Navigating Identity in Campaign Messaging: The Influence of Race & Gender on Strategy in U.S. Congressional Elections
36 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2016 Last revised: 28 Aug 2019
Date Written: August 27, 2019
Abstract
Research finds that voters prefer male leadership traits and view racial minorities as incompetent. However, there is limited evidence that underrepresented candidates experience diminished electoral outcomes. I argue that while voters may hold negative attitudes about demographic groups, underrepresented candidates are aware of voter perceptions and leverage messaging to attenuate them. To test for this strategic behavior, I analyze variation in messages by race and gender on over 6,000 campaign websites from 2008—2016 using a Structural Topic Model and split-sample design. Findings show that underrepresented candidates’ websites are associated with more messages regarding competency, work-ethic, and qualifications. These messages correlate with increased vote share and voter sentiment, accounting for the seeming discrepancy between voter bias and election outcomes in the literature. By revealing how identity shapes communication and how messaging corresponds to outcomes, these results have broad implications for studies of political communication, representation, and U.S. Congressional elections.
Keywords: political communication; text analysis; structural topic modeling; campaign messages; candidate communication; race; gender; party; bias; stereotypes; electoral outcomes
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