Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the persistence in the performance of hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). To do so, we model liquidation of hedge funds and analyze how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in measures for performance persistence. In contrast to earlier results for mutual funds, the impact of look-ahead bias is exacerbated for hedge funds due to their greater level of total risk. At the four quarter horizon, look-ahead bias can be as large as 3.8%, depending upon the decile of the distribution. At the quarterly level, we find positive persistence in hedge fund returns, also after correcting for investment style. The empirical pattern at the annual level is also consistent with positive persistence, but its statistical significance is weak.

Keywords: hedge funds, survival, look-ahead bias, performance persistence

JEL Classification: M, M41, G3, G13, G31