Automatic Inference of the Contemporaneous Causal Order of a System of Equations

12 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2005

See all articles by Kevin D. Hoover

Kevin D. Hoover

Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy

Date Written: April 7, 2004

Abstract

David Hendry and Hans-Martin Krolzig have demonstrated that PCGets, an automatic model selection algorithm that implements general-to-specific search procedures, can be successfully applied to the individual equations of vector autoregressions (VARs), provided that the contemporaneous causal order is known so that the covariance matrix of the VAR is diagonal. Graph-theoretic causal-search algorithms provide a means of determining the contemporaneous causal order of a VAR needed before general-to-specific search procedures can be applied. This paper explains the basis for those algorithms with special reference to VARs.

Keywords: causality, causal search, causal order, structural vector autoregression, VAR, model selection, general-to-specific, graph theory, VAR, SVAR

JEL Classification: C3, C30, C32

Suggested Citation

Hoover, Kevin D., Automatic Inference of the Contemporaneous Causal Order of a System of Equations (April 7, 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=528662 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.528662

Kevin D. Hoover (Contact Author)

Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy ( email )

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